Picks and odds between the Twins and the Blue Jays: Tail Toronto’s burning attack in the series finale

It’s time for a rubber game, as the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins face off in Game 3 on Sunday afternoon at Rogers Center.

The pre-game story: The Twins won Game 1 in convincing fashion before the Blue Jays came back for a 12-3 win on Saturday. Toronto has won nine of its last 10 games, while Minnesota has lost five of seven.

Here are our Twins vs. Blue Jays picks for June 5.

Preview of the Twins vs. Blue Jays selections

  • Blue Jays on 4.5 points (-107)
  • No points, first inning (-113)
  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)

Twins pick vs. Blue Jays

Best bet: Blue Jays on 4.5 points (-107)

To give some context to the Blue Jays’ batting heat, consider the number of times they’ve connected for 10+ hits and/or 3+ home runs in the last 10 games compared to their first 42 games. :

  • Last 10 games – 10+ hits eight times, 3+ home runs four times
  • First 42 games – 10+ hits nine times, 3+ homers three times

League-wise, here’s where the Blue Jays rank amid their home plate dominance:

TOR statistics since May 24 Assess MLB Rankings
CMR+ 168 1st
wOBA .405 1st
Races 71 3rd
Hunting rate 28.6% 2nd

This 10-game sample conveniently coincides with Toronto‘s torrid 9-1 streak, but it’s also large enough that we can see a line-wide trend emerging. The attack is now overperforming, but it looks more like our pre-season expectations than it did in previous parts of the season.

Read more: How to bet on the Blue Jays

That said, we like the 4.5-plus runs for an offense that has nine homers in its last four games. Production comes from all over – eight Blue Jays already have at least one multi-hit game this month – which is a relief for the big bats.

We don’t expect it to go easy against Twins southpaw Devin Smeltzer (1.50 ERA in 24 innings), who will be new to everyone but Bradley Zimmer (0 for 2 for life). But the Blue Jays’ right-handed status should help, and they’ll see a bullpen that’s already had to cover eight innings in the last two games.

Key stat: Toronto has scored more than 5 points in eight of its last 10 games.

Quick Picks

No points, first set (-113): We’ve already seen seven first-inning runs in this series, and we just reviewed how good the Blue Jays have been offensively. The justification for this NRFI choice is therefore based on the launchers.

Smeltzer launches with a bit of a unconventional arm angle, and again, he’s a whole new enemy for this lineup. Making adjustments on the fly could result in a slow start. For Toronto, Kevin Gausman allowed just a pair of first-inning runs in 10 starts.

Blue Jays -1.5 (+100): Gausman also gives us confidence in Toronto on the racing line. The 31-year-old has allowed three or fewer earned runs in every outing this season, which pairs well with a white-hot offense. The Blue Jays have covered the rush line in three straight wins.

Odds at 9:13 a.m. on 06/05/2022

JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content has been produced in partnership and therefore may not meet the standards of unbiased or independent journalism.

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